The Franco-Prussian War

A friend, Mr. T. Masuda, who knew the Western countries well, had wagered with an Englishman on a French victory in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870–71. He came to Takashima and asked him to secure the win by divination.

Takashima obtained Chun (屯) changing to Hi (比), with the first line moving. He told Masuda plainly that France would be defeated and that he would lose the wager.

From the changing of the yang line to yin he read that the Emperor of France would submit to the enemy. From the commentary "while possessing a high rank, he lowers himself before the low; and thereby wins the hearts of the people" he suggested France would become a republic. From the line correspondences he read that a traitor within the French side would be effective.

Masuda refused to believe him, saying that such reasoning on the diagrams "is not worth believing".

As Takashima records it: "Marshal Bazaine turned out to be a traitor! Sedan surrendered! Napoleon III himself was obliged to take no other alternative than to submit to his hateful adversary."

Hi is the hexagram of holding together — of who aligns with whom, and whether the alignment is sincere. Read that way, the case is less about the war's result than about where the cohesion actually lay on each side.

The modern use is the same question applied to a team, a company or a coalition: not who looks stronger, but who is genuinely bound together. The Changes offer a frame for asking it, not a verdict on the answer.